indonesia travel: Eli's ups and downs will continue

Manning slightly better statistically, but upcoming schedule will test Giants QB

Elsa / Getty Images

Eli Manning is fifth in the NFL in passer efficiency, and the Giants are leading the NFC East. But many still doubt him. NBCSports.com contributor Mike Tanier looks inside the numbers to see why.

ANALYSIS

updated 12:38 a.m. ET Nov. 16, 2011

Mike Tanier

A New York radio station could do a healthy business by adopting an All-Eli Manning Talk format.

Manning is not all that interesting, but his status as the Giants quarterback makes him one of the most scrutinized, criticized athletes on earth. When he throws three interceptions in a loss to the Seahawks, we wonder what is wrong with Manning. When he leads a comeback against the Patriots, we wonder what has changed about Manning. When he called himself an elite, top-five quarterback in August (that?s not quite what he said, but it is how the headlines read), it was like a job stimulus program for bloggers and sports talk hosts.

Manning took a lot of heat for what he sort-of said. But three months later, the Giants are atop the NFC East, and Eli ranks fifth in the NFL in passer efficiency rating and seventh in Football Outsiders? DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric. Still, there are questions about his interceptions ? he threw two more against the 49ers on Sunday ? and about his rightful place among the NFL?s established starters. Has Manning gotten better? Is he due to implode? Why can?t we stop talking about him?

Let?s go inside the numbers to see what is going on with America?s Kid Brother.

Slight improvements
Manning?s completion rate is just two-tenths of a point higher than it was last season. His yards-per-attempt are up nearly a full yard from last season but just half a yard from 2009. His interception rate is better than last year, but worse than it was in 2008 and 2009. His passer rating is only four points higher than it was in 2009.

In other words, Manning is playing better than he has in the past, but only slightly. This year?s numbers are roughly in line with his 2008 and 2009 efforts, with turnover-marred 2010 as the sore thumb.

It is important to point out the obvious at this point: Eli Manning is an above-average quarterback, and has been since 2008, if not before. Football Outsiders? DVOA metric ranks every single pass a thrown and compares it to the league average performance in the same down-and-distance situations. Manning graded out as 19.7 percent above average in 2008, 21.1 percent in 2009, and 11 percent in 2010. He is at 23.5 percent right now.

How could Manning rate as above-average in a season in which he threw 25 interceptions? DVOA looks at the whole player, not just one statistic, and Manning excelled in certain areas, like sack avoidance. Fans (writers, talk show hosts) also sometimes have a skewed sense of what an ?average? quarterback looks like. The quarterback who ranked closest to average last season was Donovan McNabb, at 0.2 percent. As bad as McNabb looked at times, he was much better than Derek Anderson, Bruce Gradkowski, Trent Edwards, and the other truly ?below average? quarterbacks who saw significant playing time. Once you establish what average looks like, it?s clear that Manning has always been better, interceptions and all.

So this is the story of a good quarterback getting somewhat better, not of a bad quarterback turning things around. Manning's critics lose sight of this, because they have a habit of comparing every quarterback to Tom Brady.

Captain Comfortable
One reason Manning?s numbers have improved is his comfort level with his supporting cast. The Giants might be thin at the skill positions, but the situation was even worse last year, and Manning has more faith in this group of receivers than he has had in the past.

The difference is most-pronounced when the Giants go to three-receiver sets. Last season, Manning?s completion rate dropped to 59.7 when there were three wide receivers on the field, and his interception rate leapt to 5.3 percent. Many of those three-receiver sets occurred on third down, and Manning?s third-down numbers were ugly: a 52.7 percent completion rate and 15 interceptions in 165 attempts.

This season, Manning?s completion rate on third down is 56.5, and he has thrown just three third-down interceptions. His completion rate is almost the same as last year with three receivers, but he is 14-of-20 in four-receiver sets, which the Giants rarely used in the second half of last season.

The reason for the improvement is simple: The Giants have three capable receivers. Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz might not have the best hands, but all three can get open and are dangerous deep threats. After Steve Smith got hurt last season, the Giants were forced to use Derek Hagan as a third receiver; when Nicks was also hurt, they were stuck with guys such as Michael Clayton and Duke Calhoun. Four of Manning?s late-season interceptions were directed at Hagan, a player who was not even on the roster until mid-November.

Giants general manager Jerry Reese took heat all through training camp for letting Steve Smith and tight end Kevin Boss leave without signing replacements. Reese is now chuckling, as Cruz and Jake Ballard have stepped into important roles in the passing game. Both players have experience in the system, so the Giants are not dealing with the timing and chemistry issues that are hurting some other teams. Manning is not throwing to superstars, but to players he is comfortable with.

The December Factor

Eli Manning career stats by month

Month	Games	Comp %	Y/A	TD	Int.	Rating
Sept.	23	61.6	7.71	40	22	91.3
Oct.	28	59.0	7.16	48	26	86.9
Nov.	28	58.0	6.67	43	38	76.7
Dec.-Jan.	34	56.1	6.46	42	34	75.2

Of course, Manning hasn?t had to face the howling winds of Giants Stadium yet. Manning has a reputation as an awful December quarterback. As Table 1 shows, there?s some truth to that reputation. Manning?s effectiveness fades slowly as the season wears on: Completion rates fall, interception rates rise, and Giants fans know that Manning sometimes takes the team with him when his production drops.

Why do Manning?s numbers slide so consistently through the season? The weather plays a part: Not only is Giants Stadium the kind of place where you can test icing conditions on aircraft engines after Thanksgiving, but the Giants often have to play in Philadelphia and other cold locations. This year, they will play four games in the Meadowlands in December or January. You try keeping your completion percentage high when a freezing wind is whipping off the swamps.

More news